5 Trends To Watch Out For In 2024

Photo of the world from space by NASA on Unsplash

Almost every culture in Africa has a version of the saying;

“What an elder can see while sitting down, a child cannot see even when they climb the tallest tree”.

When I was younger, it sounded very mysterious to me. Now I know it is just about pattern matching, recognizing trends and understanding that like Mark Twain said, “History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes”.

Forget crystal balls, I’m basing my outlook for 2024 on the past decade’s lessons. Get ready for these 5 game-changers:

AI Here, AI There, AI Everywhere

Depiction of a city taken over by AI-generated by stable diffusion

Artificial Intelligence is not new. Platforms like Google have been using forms of AI to optimize search results for years, infact, Chess-playing computers like Deep Blue (1996) showcased AI’s capabilities in strategic thinking and complex computations.

However, 2023 was the year AI went mainstream. Most consumer platforms are beginning to integrate forms of AI into their products while others are using AI behind the scenes to reduce cost, enhance their products and otherwise compete favourably.

In 2024, the use of AI will explode both for good and bad. More militaries will begin to use it for targeting purposes. At the same time, expect access to credit and financial services to improve in developing countries where the use of AI will enable traditional financial institutions to evaluate people better and consider alternative metrics for credit scoring.

On the flip side, the use of AI will likely gut the market for less skilled and repetitive labour, i.e. this might not be the best time to start learning UI/UX design, Front End Development, Data Analysis and other easily replaceable skills.

More Nails In The Coffin Of Pax Americana

Since the end of WWII when the USA emerged as the undisputed world power, the world entered a period of relative peace which led to unprecedented economic growth, the greatest improvement in human development indices in the history of mankind and the development of much of the technologies and the very global system we are enjoying today. Political scientists call this period the Pax Americana i.e. The American Peace.

Unfortunately, there have been massive challenges to this system over the last 10 years with China, Russia, North Korea and Iran fighting hard to either completely dethrone the US or at the very least force the world into a multi-polar system. The most significant challenge to this system was the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Recent events like the Iran-backed Hamas invasion of Israel in 2023 and the Houthi rebels’ disruption of Red Sea shipping suggest that “challenger powers” are targeting the current world order through incremental attacks, potentially leading to its eventual collapse.

In 2024;

1. The US will withdraw even more from the world, exhausted by the constant engagement and the sheer cost involved with maintaining and projecting US strength across the world, pressure from voters will lead to the abandonment of certain allies (Ukraine ? Taiwan ? )which will send a signal to other US allies that they need to take care of themselves which will in turn lead to a more militarized world akin to pre-WWII levels of armament.
2. China will increase aggressive action in the South China Sea and might even initiate a blockade on Taiwan. Countries like the Philipines, Bhutan and to a lesser extent Japan will be negatively affected by an increasingly muscular China. How they react will go a long way to show how close we are to WWIII.

The Doors Of Immigration to Western Countries are Closing

Immigration is part and parcel of the fabric of the world and the history of mankind. When people are dissatisfied with where they are, eventually, they will pick up and move elsewhere. However, anti-immigrant sentiment also seems to be part and parcel of the fabric. And things are not looking good for continued immigration.

Some Western countries are enacting stricter immigration policies. Visa quotas are being adjusted, asylum processes scrutinized, and pathways to citizenship are being made more difficult. Yet, to declare a universal shut-down would be painting with too broad a brush.

Security concerns have played a pivotal role in the evolving immigration landscape. Western countries, grappling with the challenges of global terrorism and rising geopolitical tensions, are reevaluating their border policies to ensure the safety of their citizens. Stricter vetting processes and enhanced security measures are becoming integral components of immigration policies, contributing to a more restrictive environment.

Long story short, 2024 will see less immigration numbers than 2023 and 2022.

At this point you might start noticing a trend, we are going back to a pre-WWII world. And what was one thing the world didn't have a lot of pre-WWII? Democracy. So something else to expect in 2024, is the rollback of personal freedoms, human rights and democracy in many countries in both the Global South and West.

Social Media Regulations

This will come in 2 forms;

1. Western Countries will most likely implement regulations and restrictions around TikTok. There are already partial restrictions on Tiktok across 11 western countries;

• United States: Federal agencies banned TikTok from government devices in February 2023, citing security concerns. Several states and cities have followed suit.
• Australia: Banned TikTok from government devices in April 2023, citing similar security concerns.
• Belgium: Temporarily banned TikTok from government devices in March 2023, pending further review of cybersecurity, privacy, and misinformation risks.
• Canada: Banned TikTok from government devices in February 2023, citing concerns about data security and foreign interference.
• Denmark: Banned TikTok from government devices in March 2023, citing data security concerns.
• European Union: The three main institutions (European Parliament, Commission, and Council) banned TikTok from staff devices in March 2023, recommending staff also remove it from personal devices.
• France: Banned TikTok from government devices in March 2023, citing concerns about data collection and potential foreign influence.
• New Zealand: Banned TikTok from government devices in April 2023, citing cybersecurity risks.
• Norway: Banned TikTok from government devices in March 2023, citing concerns about data collection and potential misuse.
• Taiwan: Banned TikTok from government devices in February 2023, citing national security concerns.
• United Kingdom: Banned TikTok from government devices in March 2023, citing concerns about data security and foreign interference.

The war in Ukraine and the current Israel-Hamas war might be the straw that breaks the Camels back and allows governments to institute stricter restrictions especially due to the suspicions that China is using the app to spread misinformation in the West.

2. Developing countries like Nigeria have been trying for years to restrict the wider social media landscape as a way to wrestle back control of the public narrative, town square and diffuse popular anger at worsening economic conditions while shutting down what has proven to be a powerful organizing tool for protests and civil disobedience.

2024 might be the year they finally get to implement some restrictions on the social media space due to a lack of interest from Western countries who will be distracted by their internal issues.

This one is very specific to Nigeria but should be of interest to anyone doing business in Africa;

Further Devaluation of the Naira and More Inflation

On the 30th of December 2023, the Senate of Nigeria approved the securitization of outstanding N7.3tn Ways And Means borrowing for the Federal Government.

What does this mean in plain English?

The Federal Government of Nigeria regularly borrows money to fund both recurring and capital expenditures. Because this is a loan, it must be paid. back either from revenues generated within the country or in extreme circumstances, through securitization.

• Securitization involves bundling together these short-term loans and packaging them into a new financial instrument, like bonds or notes. These securitized instruments have longer maturities, allowing the government to spread out the repayment over a longer period. This new package can then be sold to investors in the financial market, raising new funds for the government.

How does this affect you?

a) This has the potential to crowd out private investment, the government competing with private borrowers for funds by issuing long-term securities can drive up interest rates overall, making it more expensive for businesses and individuals to borrow for investment and growth.

b)If the FG compels the CBN to purchase this securitized debt to finance the borrowing. This can lead to:

Expansion of the money supply: Central bank purchases of government debt can inject additional money into the economy. This can potentially lead to:

• Inflation: If the increased money supply outpaces economic growth, it can lead to inflation as prices rise across the economy.
• Currency devaluation: Higher inflation can make the domestic currency less attractive compared to other currencies, potentially leading to its depreciation.

What should you do?

Save and invest as much as you can in other more stable currencies. As a Nigerian, there are many options and apps you can use to get this done.

So there you have it, 5 trends you might want to look out for in 2024. Which is most relevant to you and which do you disagree with? Let me know in the comment section below.

TL: DR

1. AI is taking over
2. Increased global insecurity and new conflicts in Asia.
3. Lower immigration than in previous years.
4. Rolling back of democracy and human rights in developed and developing countries
5. Inflation and currency devaluation in Nigeria.