Lagos is Beyond Repair
Lagos is the most important city in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Accounting for more than 60% of the entire country’s industrial/commercial activity and with a population of close to 20 million people, Lagos is the most populated city in Africa and boasts a GDP Per Capita of $2,174, and Gross Domestic Product of $29 Billion as of 2021.
It is the biggest metropolitan area in Africa and is considered the unofficial technology startup capital of Africa where 2 out of 5 tech startups will be started in Lagos.
If Lagos was a country, it would be the 7th largest economy on the continent, bigger than Cote d’Ivoire and Kenya, two of the continent’s most promising economies.
The Lagos state government estimates that around 1000 new people move into the city every day. It's probably more than that.
So why is it such a horrible horrible place to live?
Out of 140 cities ranked in 2021, Lagos was ranked as the 139th most liveable city in the world, only ahead of Damascus, Syria which is currently experiencing war, and worse than Tripoli, Libya which is also experiencing a war.
For people who actually live in Lagos Nigeria, this is not shocking or new information. The dirty open secret that everyone who has spent more than 6 months in the city knows is that Lagos is essentially a large ungoverned space.
Every 2 working weeks, a trailer falls down from the Ojuelegba bridge, sometimes killing innocent people on their way to work and nobody gets sanctioned for this.
For the last 10 years, the traffic situation has gotten worse to the point where spending 6 hours in traffic (in one direction) just to get to work is no longer a big deal.
The city and state provide no discernible services to residents who are forced to sink boreholes for water, buy their own gas cylinders, pay for their own security and even generate their own power since less than 20% of residents get more than 8 hours of power every day.
If you decide to start a business in Lagos, you will be subject to haphazard multiple taxations.
Everyone from the state government to the local government will approach you with their hands out. And this is excluding federal taxes and municipal and street-level levies you still have to pay.
On the roads, only about 30% are in good motorable condition and when you are able to get on the roads, everyone knows public transport is controlled by a loose confederation of organizations who collect levies from drivers reportedly on behalf of the state government and drivers who refuse to pay or who hesitate when asked are visited with raw violence right on the street while policemen walk by on their way to collect their own illegal levy from the next driver.
The historical and political reasons why Lagos degenerated into what it is today are out of the scope of this article, but suffice to say it’s taken almost 100 years to get here and nobody is talking seriously about reversing these trends.
As we officially enter elections season in Nigeria, and with the populace demanding that the new president “fix” the country and drag it out of the current economic mess it’s in, it’s important to discuss what it might take to fix Lagos as its clear that for the foreseeable future the road to success in Nigeria runs through Lagos.
Go on a mental exercise with me let’s explore what a Lagos that’s not a horrible place to live might look like and how we could get there.
State of Emergency
The reforms that Lagos will need to undergo cannot be done during the normal cause of events, so I suggest a limited state of emergency be declared in the state to last a period of 10 years.
We have to pretend that there has just been a war or natural disaster in the city and there is a need for massive reconstruction.
This will allow the state government to exercise the same powers they would if there was a natural disaster in the state. It’s important that these powers reside in the state government rather than the federal government so that they can serve as a check on the Governor’s powers.
The major aspects of development that the state needs to tackle revolve around;
Administration and Security
Transportation
Infrastructure
Business reform
Administration and Security
The layers of government in the State are the state government, Local Government Area and Local Council Development Area.
First and foremost, there needs to be a change in the way the state and city are administered. Very few people are able to access municipal services and even fewer people know what they are supposed to get from the local governments and how to even go about accessing them.
Governance has to be brought as close to the people as possible. As long as Lagosians don’t feel like they have skin in the game, they cannot be productive partners in what needs to be done to get the State to be the world-class metropolitan area it can be.
Lagosians have already shown that they are able to organize themselves at the street or estate level through very effective residents associations. These RA’s should also be added to the governing structure of the state. Their roles will be to coordinate government policy with the LCDAs and take the needs of their estate or street to the Local Councils.
The Nigerian Police Force (NPF) will be phased out of the city over a 5–10 year period. The NPF is a deeply corrupt and incompetent organization which is actually a huge part of the problem currently faced in the city today.
New state police will be created and trained in the most modern and locally relevant techniques to empower them to keep the city secure.
The (let’s call them) Lagos State Police Force LSPF will not live in barracks but among the citizens, they are supposed to protect. As a civil force, the LSPF needs to be a part of the community, and that’s how it can evolve with empathy which the current NPF lacks.
Infrastructure
There is a need for massive infrastructure development in the city. The likes of which can only be compared to European cities under the Marshall Plan.
First and foremost a statewide metro system will need to be built that connects every single neighbourhood.
Lagos is the smallest state in Nigeria by landmass and there’s no reason why it should take more than an hour to go from one end of the city to the other. A citywide metro system would see to that.
This is a project that will take at least 20 years before its complete but will require widening of roads and relocating of some neighbourhoods to accommodate the new rail system.
New roads, highways, bridges and neighbourhoods will need to be built. Old neighbourhoods will need to be modernised while taking into consideration the needs of their residents and reducing suffering as much as possible.
Since we are discussing a redesign, the new city will de-emphasize car-centric design and prioritize other eco-friendly transportation systems like electric bikes, scooters and bicycles.
The framework for a citywide high-speed internet system should also be laid down to encourage the development of tech companies and solutions within the city.
Transportation
Moving around Lagos today is a terrible experience. If you decide to use public transportation, your options are;
- Danfo buses (Mini shuttles); Usually old vehicles in terrible condition but which have managed to stay mobile for at least 25 years.
- Okada (Commercial motorcycles): Used for shorter distance trips but very dangerous and have been the cause of many accidents.
- Keke (Tricycles): Used for inner-city transportation and for movement within neighbourhoods, they are rarely found on the highways
- BRT: Larger buses in better condition but can only be found on specific routes and cover less than 20% of the city.
If you decide to use private transport, then your options are either your own vehicle or one of the ride-hailing services.
Regardless of the option you choose, one thing is certain, you will not enjoy it.
The Danfos and the Okadas will have to be phased out over a 5 year period while the drivers are reskilled and upskilled into either the new transportation system or into other jobs.
The Kekes can be swapped for electric-powered vehicles specifically within neighbourhoods.
The BRT system will be expanded till it is available in every neighbourhood for intercity transportation in places where the metro might be unable to reach.
Business Reform
As difficult as it is to do business in Lagos, it’s still the financial nerve centre of the entire Western Africa.
A deliberate effort will need to be put into easing the business environment including measures like;
- Creating a unified tax code for the city, something like a single-payer system where one payment is made and the different branches of government go-ahead to split up the payment, removing the burden of payment from the business and placing it on the government.
- Free Trade Zones will need to be created in multiple locations across the city similar to what is being done in Ibeju Lekki to spur economic activity, especially manufacturing.
- The city could also set up a counterpart investment fund that matches any funds startups within the city raise. For example, if Startup A with HQ in Lagos Nigeria were to raise $1million from foreign investors, the city will match that investment with either 50% or 100% of that amount. This is a system that has been used successfully in Israel.
- Research centres and world-class educational institutions will be encouraged to set up satellite centres within the city to help train the next generation to be self-sufficient.
There’s nothing discussed above that’s earth-shattering or groundbreaking. These are things everyone knows should be done for Lagos to get to its full potential.
The problem is the chances of any government in the near future taking any steps as radical as this is less than zero.
And that is why Lagos is beyond repair. Small incremental steps won’t work because those steps are not happening fast enough to keep pace with the decay.
So at this rate what will life in Lagos look like in 10 years? Just imagine.
Update
Between when I started writing this article and when I published it, another trailer fell from yet another bridge in Lagos. Thankfully no lives were lost this time, but it's a horrible testament to the frequency of this tragic man-made disaster and it doesn't look like a solution is in sight.
